Electrification of Barking to Gospel Oak Line

Electrification meets the real world

Electrification of the Gospel Oak-Barking route has to be an absolute no-brainer, especially when its strategic importance in allowing electric traction to service the new London Gateway container terminal is taken into account.  So why isn’t happening?

Well, as Transport Minister Simon Burns pointed out just before Christmas, at approximately £90 million for 12 miles of railway electrification through suburban London the cost is ‘very high’.  Since several readers have expressed astonishment at this figure, I have done some delving.  And it does add up.

First the core section includes 3.8 miles on viaduct, requiring special foundations for the overhead line equipment support masts.  A further 1.24 milers is in cutting with a low retaining wall, similarly complicating support structures.

On top of that, there are 15 low bridges requiring clearance work many of which are used to carry utilities such as water, gas and electricity across the railway.  So it is going to be expensive. One informed estimate puts the cost at around £45 million. 

Then you add the extras: a contingency allowance plus compensation to operators for disruption to services.  Say another £30 million.

Despite the contingency allowance, we now have to add the Treasury’s optimism bias.  This is nominally 60%.

So this tiny scheme is now looking like £120 million.  But as the scheme progresses the contingency allowance should shrink so the £90 million quoted by the minister is probably about right.